This prediction comes as the NSW parliament decides not to decriminalise low-level drug use.
Major illicit drug markets are nothing if not resilient, according to Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission principal drugs advisor Shane Neilson.
Speaking at the National Drug & Alcohol Research Centre (NDARC) research symposium earlier this week, Mr Neilson said nothing demonstrated this resilience better than the way illicit drug use has managed to continue through the market shocks of the pandemic.
“With the exception of methamphetamine, which fluctuated more widely than normal, and MDMA, where the downward trend started before covid, consumption of all the other major drugs pretty much ended the covid period where they’d started,” he said.
“What that tells us is that organised crime will always find a way.”
Meanwhile, nicotine e-cigarettes, which are illegal without a prescription, have also spiked in popularity over the past several years, despite tougher penalties being introduced.
Mr Neilson is fairly certain the rise of overseas-manufactured meth is tied to the falling party drug market; traditionally, most of Australia’s ecstasy supply has been imported from Europe.
“We’re pretty confident that the MDMA market downturn is due to decisions by manufacturers of the drug in Europe, who’ve decided to switch to crystal methamphetamine instead to make greater profits,” he said.
“And that’s not good news.”
It’s likely that MDMA consumption will remain low for a considerable time, while meth use increases, he said.
The upshot of all this, according to the drugs adviser, is to demonstrate that the drugs market waits for no one.
“There’s only a relatively short period of time when health agencies and also educators, for example, have an opportunity to get to people who are making a decision about whether or not to consume illicit drugs,” said Mr Neilson.
“And our sense is that maybe you get six months to ramp up treatment programs, but that’s enormously difficult in a situation like covid, where every available resource was put toward treating the disease.”
Mr Neilson’s ominous prediction came on the same day that the NSW government finally responded to the recommendations of the 2020 ice inquiry, confirming it would not relax penalties for people caught with small quantities of any type of illicit drug intended for personal use.
As NDARC’s own Professor Donald Weatherburn pointed out later in the summit, this decision is in keeping with how most Australians feel about decriminalisation, but that is not to say that levels of support for decriminalisation aren’t on the rise.
“The public as a whole are drifting away from supporting punitive sanctions for drug use and moving towards support for treatment and education,” he told audiences.
“That’s particularly true of cannabis – almost half the population would like to see this drug made legal, and more than half certainly want no action taken against users.
“Support for legalising other drugs [for personal use] though remains low… it’s certainly not growing for heroin or methamphetamine.”
Nicotine e-cigarettes, meanwhile, have only increased their foothold in Australia, despite regulations introduced last year designed to limit access to people with a prescription.
“[The laws] do theoretically restrict nicotine vaping product supply to people who smoke or already vape, and should prevent access by young people,” tobacco control researcher Associate Professor Coral Gartner said.
“The reality appears to be a little bit less successful… because there does appear to be a growing number of anecdotal reports of vaping in schools, [and the view is that] this is becoming a widespread problem.”
Other speakers at the summit were more critical of the laws.
“Surprise, surprise, shock news – making e-cigarettes illegal hasn’t stopped access to them in Australia. Who would have guessed that?” addiction clinician Conjoint Professor Adrian Dunlop said.
“I’m being facetious,” he added.
