The undersupply of GPs in WA will grow to nearly 1000 in eight years, the major part of an estimated shortfall of 1450 specialist medical practitioners
Western Australia will face a shortage of nearly 1000 general practitioners by 2025 as population growth, ageing and chronic disease drive up demand for primary care, according to a new report.
The WA Health Department’s Medical Workforce Report 2015-16 projects the undersupply of GPs in the state will grow to 974 in eight years, the major part of an estimated shortfall of 1450 WA-trained specialist medical practitioners.
The GP workforce in WA is already tracking at below replacement level, the report says.
“Analysis of the workforce data shortfall shows that general practice is the largest specialty group at risk in WA and the current vocational training program is failing to meet maintenance replacement requirements let alone the additional increases required by increasing demand,” it says.
The prediction takes account of the coming supply of graduates from the new medical school at Curtin University, which accepted its first cohort of 60 students this year.
The Curtin school, which will focus on rural general practice training, will step up its student intake by 10 places per year to reach 110 in 2022.
Curtin’s Foundation Dean of Medicine, Professor William Hart, said the new workforce information showed the decision to go ahead with the new medical school, despite opposition from the AMA and others, was the right one.
“The so-called controversy over whether Curtin Medical School should be created, and whether WA needed a third medical school, has been put to bed well and truly,” Professor Hart told The Medical Republic.
However, the report also says it is not clear how the training pipeline will cope with added demand for clinical training and supervision.
The WA workforce report, released on September 29, says the state will continue to rely on international medical graduates to fill short- to medium-term shortages.
But it warns that dependence on overseas-trained doctors is risky.
Policy changes or shifting circumstances in countries that traditionally supply IMGs could potentially “move a specialty from having a small excess to a shortfall within a very short time period”, with a longer-term impact on junior doctors and consultants.
The projections reveal in detail for the first time the medical workforce issues facing WA and the need to address them as a matter of urgency, the report says.
In his executive summary, WA Chief Medical Officer Professor Gary Geelhoed said future system-wide strategies would include monitoring of medical graduates and their chosen specialties to avoid surpluses in some areas.
Short- to medium-term actions to deal with shortages would include upskilling senior registrars or IMGs to obtain fellowships and ensure adequate consultant positions, as well as targeted interstate or overseas recruitment.
In the longer term, Professor Geelhoed flagged a shift to greater reliance on primary care and multidisciplinary teams to cope with rising chronic disease, and boosting vocational training to plug shortfalls.
Apart from general practice, critical workforce shortages, where supply is less than 70% of demand, are anticipated by 2025 in 18 areas led by addiction medicine, cardiothoracic surgery, clinical genetics, general surgery, immunology and allergy, neurology and neurosurgery.
While the precise number of medical practitioners needed to meet WA’s future healthcare needs is not known, the increasing number of specialties with projected shortfalls is of significant concern, the report says.
“Without intervention, based on current trends, supply will by insufficient to meet projected healthcare needs in those specialties.”
The projections were based on average numbers of graduating vocational trainees, the number of specialists expected to retire at 65 and estimated demand.
