Despite the doom and gloom predictions, we seem to be entering the home straight.
The media (this publication not excepted) knows that bad news sells.
Rolling coverage of terrorist attacks, natural disasters and, of course, more recently COVID-19 makes people more likely to buy newspapers (yes, they do still exist) or consume news electronically or online, and maybe even pay for some of it.
Humans may be a bit hard-wired to be alert for and react to negative stimuli. Historically, a keen sense for possible danger may have made the difference between survival and death.
So over the last 12 months we have been provided with ongoing “disaster waiting to happen” stories. Effectively a year down the track, how many doom and gloom predictions have come to pass?
Australia was going to run out of ICU beds in early April 2020. Cricket at the SCG was going to be a superspreader event. Even illegal gatherings at places such as Byron Bay in New South Wales, and protest gatherings such as we saw on Australia Day, have not led to any cases.
There is very little coverage of positive developments.
But there is good news.
In Israel it was reported that there was a 94% reduction in symptomatic COVID-19 infections among 600,000 people who received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine compared to a control group.
A study published in The Lancet showed an 85% reduction in symptomatic COVID-19 within 15 to 28 days with an overall reduction of infections, including asymptomatic cases detected by testing, of 75% after one dose of vaccine in 7214 Israeli hospital staff.
The Wall Street Journal reported on February 18 that cases in the United States were down 77% in the preceding six weeks. As of that week, 15% of Americans had received the vaccine, and it is estimated that 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
It also made the (currently) unpopular point that the reduction in infections likely had another driver too. To quote Marty Makary: “… natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of one in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.”
Maybe an overestimate and maybe not.
Let’s be blunt. Viruses spread in a viral fashion. Coronaviruses, in general, spread far and wide as they are usually quite contagious without being that serious. Thus it is virtually certain that the number of recorded cases is far less than the number of people who have come into contact with the virus, had no symptoms and unbeknownst to them (or anyone else) have immunity.
In Australia, the average age of death from COVID-19 is 82 years, which is also the average life expectancy. ABS data released on 28 October, showed that 72.7% of the 682 people who died of the coronavirus in Australia up to 31 August had at least one pre-existing chronic condition listed on their death certificate.
The fact is, we are not all at equal risk of serious infection or death. We know whom to protect.
Remember too, every pandemic in history has ended!
Health Minister Greg Hunt was reported as saying that we were on “on track” to return to normal once everyone was vaccinated.
This is the key point. So far politicians have been quick to stop us living our lives. There has been no indication as to what criteria must be met to give us our normal freedoms back. It is time for politicians (especially certain state premiers) to do this.
Falling cases internationally and a vaccine program mean we are entering the home straight. The days of masks, not seeing loved ones, knee-jerk lockdowns for a single positive test and having our every movement tracked need to be numbered.
It is time for positivity to rear its head.
Dr Joe Kosterich is a GP based in Perth. For more, go to www.drjoetoday.com.
