If you thought you were stretched thin now… it’s projected to get a whole lot worse.
A new study from the Department of Health and Aged Care says Australia is 2400 full time equivalent (FTE) doctors short of fulfilling unmet demand this year, with that figure likely to surpass 4000 FTE before 2030.
The good news out of the report, released on Monday, was that despite an ageing workforce and famously low recruitment levels, the total number of working GPs in the country is increasing.
Using historic Australian GP Training Program data, it projected entry rates between 5.3% and 5.9% per year, and exit rates around 4.8% per year; a slight year-on-year workforce growth.
In real terms, it’ll mean an increase from 39,500 GPs in 2023 to 48,500 GPs in 2048, which equates to 29,200 FTE and 35,000 FTE respectively.
There’s also a nugget of good news for the regions, with a relatively higher proportion of GPs aged under 40 years working in MMM 3 to 7 areas.
“ACRRM has been advocating to restore the value proposition of rural general practice, by redirecting health funding towards comprehensive primary care and addressing barriers to rural and remote training and practice,” said college president Dr Dan Halliday.
“This year, we commenced 350 registrars on our training program, highlighting there is a real interest in rural generalism.”
The bad news is that demand is projected to increase to between 41,000 FTE and 43,800 FTE by 2048. This makes for a potential shortfall of around 8,900 FTE by 2048.
Already, unmet demand – that is, the difference between the level of care DoHAC would expect the population to require, and what it has observed the population utilising – is estimated to be about 2400 FTE.
RACGP president Dr Nicole Higgins called the findings “concerning but not surprising”.
“Since 1 February 2023, the RACGP has been responsible for training 90% of Australia’s GPs through the Government’s Australian General Practice Training Program,” she said.
“And our approach is working. In just 12 months we have placed 114 GP registrars into communities that hadn’t had one for many years.
“We know what works and we can do more, but we need the Federal Government’s support to do it.”
Of the states and territories, NSW and Victoria are in for the biggest projected deficits by 2048: an undersupply between 2300 and 2700 FTE for NSW and between 2500 and 2800 FTE for Victoria.
Western Australia trails the two more populous states with a projected deficit between 635 and 1350 FTE by 2048.
Queensland and South Australia fall in the middle, with maximum estimated deficits of around 650 FTE by the end of the time period.
The three smallest jurisdictions add up to a maximum deficit of 620 FTE combined.
Moreover, the average GP age will increase from 49 in 2023 to 51 in 2048 as the workforce ages. By 2048, around 18% of GPs will be aged over 65.
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Meanwhile, the proportion of the GP workforce who trained in Australia will decrease from 53% to 48%, meaning internationally trained doctors will make up more than half the workforce.
AMA president Professor Steve Robson said the focus for the future needed to be on rebuilding the country’s GP workforce.
“There needs to be greater opportunities for doctors to experience general practice early in their career and policy that ensures the number of GP training places each year is based on community need,” he said.
He also recommended lifting working conditions for GP trainees to provide pay and entitlements parity with their hospital-based counterparts.
