The Medical Republic has attempted to crunch some numbers to call DoHAC’s bluff on Medicare urgent care clinic data as it stands. It’s not been easy.
Data on the efficacy of Medicare urgent care clinics is about as clear as mud, according to The Medical Republic’s calculations.
As previously reported by TMR, earlier this month the federal health minister Mark Butler told ABC Hobart that national data showed that Medicare urgent care clinics were making their mark.
“I’ve seen national hospital data that shows that those lower category presentations, so semi-urgent, non-urgent, which is what these clinics are aimed at, have flatlined for the first time in living memory across the country,” he said.
“That’s even where the clinics aren’t everywhere.
“But in some of the hospital catchments where states do give us access to the date, we’re seeing if there is an UCC in the catchment, those presentations are actually reducing by as much as 10 to 20%.”
When asked where the data was from and for specific examples, a spokesperson for DoHAC pointed to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.
“ED hospital data is publicly available on AIHW website,” they said.
“Publicly available AIHW hospital ED data shows there has been a decrease in semi-urgent and non-urgent ED presentations across a number of hospitals that are supported by Medicare UCCs.
“Some examples of hospitals near Medicare UCCs that have seen a reduction in semi-urgent and non-urgent Emergency Department presentations between 2022-23 and 2023-24 include Ipswich hospital, Royal Adelaide hospital and Batemans Bay hospital.
“This is not an exhaustive list of hospitals that have seen a reduction.
“Calculations for individual hospitals can be derived from the published AIHW hospital ED data.”
TMR has attempted to replicate those calculations.
Nationally, non-urgent presentations fluctuated between 500,000 and 600,000 per year from 2011-12 to 2019-20, preceding a covid jump in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
The numbers then dropped to just under 480,000 in 2022-23 – before Medicare UCCs came into play – before dropping to 472,000 in 2023-24.
Related
Similarly, semi-urgent presentations plateaued at around 3 million in the years leading up to 2020-21, beginning their descent prior in 2021-22. In 2023-24 presentations sat at just over 2.8 million.
The government’s example hospitals – Ipswich hospital, Royal Adelaide hospital and Batemans Bay hospital – provided the following data.
| MUCC name | State | Opening date | Closest public hospital | % change non-urgent presentations 2022-23 to 2023-24 | % change semi-urgent presentations 2022-23 to 2023-24 |
| Ipswich | QLD | 28-Aug-23 | Ipswich | Down 36% | Down 17% |
| Elizabeth (first of five to open in Adelaide) | SA | 23-Oct-23 | Royal Adelaide | Down 36% | Down 16% |
| Batemans Bay | NSW | 4-Dec-23 | Batemans Bay | Down 23% | Down 11% |
As per DoHAC’s metrics, TMR compared the AIHW 2022-23 data with the 2023-24 data.
Given that Medicare UCCs only began opening in June 2023, the window for relevant data was narrow. The search was limited to the UCCs opened in or before the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year.
Of note, two of three of the government’s examples would not have made the cut by these standards.
Of the list of 58 Medicare UCCs opened in 2023 provided by DoHAC, 21 opened between June-September 2023.
Of note, eight of the Victorian Medicare UCCs were state-run Priority Primary Care Centres prior to becoming Medicare UCCs.
| MUCC name | State | Opening date | Closest public hospital | % change non-urgent presentations 2022-23 to 2023-24 | % change semi-urgent presentations 2022-23 to 2023-24 |
| Werribee | VIC | 1-Jun-23 | Werribee Mercy Hospital | Down 35% | Down 9% |
| Frankston | VIC | 1-Jun-23 | Frankston Hospital | Up 21% | Up 15% |
| Geelong | VIC | 1-Jun-23 | University Hospital Geelong | Down 9% | Down 11% |
| Heidelberg | VIC | 1-Jun-23 | Austin Hospital | Down 20% | Down 10% |
| Narre Warren | VIC | 1-Jun-23 | Casey Hospital | Up 35% | Up 2% |
| Prahran | VIC | 1-Jun-23 | The Alfred Hospital | Down 29% | Up 3% |
| Shepparton | VIC | 1-Jun-23 | Shepparton Hospital | Down 9% | Up 5% |
| Sunbury | VIC | 27-Jun-23 | Royal Melbourne Hospital | Down 13% | Down 5% |
| Rockingham | WA | 30-Jun | Rockingham Hospital | 0% | Up 4% |
| Launceston | TAS | 31-Jul | Launceston General | Down 12% | Down 3% |
| Perth City | WA | late June | Royal Perth | Down 24% | 0% |
| Maroubra | NSW | 19-Jul | Prince of Wales | Up 20% | Up 4% |
| Westmead | NSW | 27-Jul | Westmead | Down 7% | Down 3% |
| Wollongong | NSW | late July | Wolloongong | Up 11% | Down 6% |
| Rooty Hill | NSW | 7-Aug | Mount Druitt | Up 9% | Up 1% |
| Logan (Browns Plains) | QLD | 14-Aug | Logan Hospital | Down 2% | Down 1% |
| Penrith | NSW | 14-Aug | Nepean Hospital | Down 5% | Down 4% |
| Albury | NSW | 23-Aug | Albury Wadonga | Down 16% | Down 8% |
| Ipswich | QLD | 28-Aug | Ipswich Hospital | Down 36% | Down 17% |
| Clarkson | WA | 29-Aug | Joondalup Hospital | 0% | Up 5% |
| Hobart (Bathurst Street) | TAS | Aug | Royal Hobart Hospital | Down 11% | Down 1% |
While the government’s chosen examples showed decreases in non-urgent and semi-urgent care as high as 36% and 17% respectively, the broader data set shows increases of the same magnitude.
Nine of the 21 UCCs showed increases in presentations in at least one of the categories.
Fundamentally the data remains rudimentary at best.
Until the government conducts comprehensive evaluation of UCCs any statements about the model’s success inevitably involves cherry-picking of data.
