Sydney not distancing nearly enough, modelling suggests

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Communicable Disease COVID-19 Live blog

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Bianca Nogrady

And Scott Morrison blames ATAGI and Craig Kelly for low vaccine rollout.

Welcome to The Medical Republic’s COVID Catch-Up.

It’s the day’s covid-19 news in one convenient post. Email bianca@biancanogrady.com with any tips, comments or feedback.

15 July

New South Wales won’t get on top of this latest outbreak until at least 70% of the population is adhering to social distancing guidelines, compared to the 40% adherence levels currently observed, a modelling study suggests.
A non-peer-reviewed paper published on the preprint server arXiv looked at the effect of different levels of adherence to social distancing on the spread of the variant, which has an estimated reproductive number that is 97% greater than the original SARS-CoV-2 strain.
The modelling suggested that if only 60% or less of the population practised social distancing, the Delta outbreak would continue to maintain infection rates or grow.
At 70% adherence, case numbers would continue to reduce after two months, but at 80% adherence, case numbers would reduce after one month.
The researchers also estimated that, in its strictest sense of ‘essential services’, around 4% of the population would be considered exempt from the social distancing requirements but a more comprehensive definition of essential services would account for around 19% of the population.
“The Delta variant demands a stronger compliance and a reduction in the scope of essential services (especially, in a setting with low acquired immunity),” the authors wrote.

I know I promised some time ago that Covid Catch-up would not get too political, but can we just take a moment to appreciate the world-class blame-shifting efforts of the man currently paid nearly $550,000 a year – the fifth-highest-paid world leader – to run this country?
In the last week, Scott ‘I don’t hold a hose’ Morrison has thrown both his own medical expert advisory group on immunisation (ATAGI) and vaccine-opposed hydroxychloroquine champion former Liberal senator Craig Kelly under the bus, blaming both for the slow rollout of covid vaccines around Australia.
With the Delta variant now nipping at the vaccine program’s heels, and the biggest states either in lockdown or facing it, Morrison’s teflon-coated ego might finally be flaking off some, as both Liberal and Labor premiers around the country start blaming Morrison and his cabinet for failing to organise the proverbial bonk in a brothel.
Morrison has decided attack is the best defence. So everyone is getting a spray, but especially the medical experts who have the unenviable task of trying to get the government to operate in an evidence-based manner.
The attack on ATAGI – not once, but twice – has not gone down well with former ATAGI members, some of whom have pointedly stated that their role is simply to advise. The government, and Scott Morrison, are the ones holding the hose.

A third death from thrombosis with thrombocytopenia has been reported in association with the AstraZeneca vaccine, this time in a 72-year-old woman from South Australia.
The TGA reports that the case was particularly severe, and the woman experienced cerebral thrombosis with extremely low platelet levels after her first dose of the vaccine.
A further seven cases of TTS have been reported in the past week, taking the total number to 83 cases from around 5.4 million doses of vaccine.

Where is Australia at with the vaccine rollout? Here’s a chart with figures from 30 June – when the federal department of health started releasing this daily data.

Meanwhile the pandemic has resulted in the biggest disruption to immunisation programs in history, with an estimated 8.5 million children missing out on their third dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) vaccine and 8.9 million missing out on their first dose of the measles vaccine.
A study published in the Lancet calculated that in 2020, actual coverage with the third dose of the DPT vaccine was 7.7% lower and for the measles vaccine was 7.9% lower, than what was expected.
“In the absence of concerted routine immunisation catch-up and expansion efforts, especially as populations return to pre-pandemic interactions, the world will face heightened risks of vaccine-preventable diseases in 2021 and beyond,” the authors wrote.

Could CRISPR gene editing save the day? Australian researchers have used the gene editing tool to stop SARS-CoV-2 from replicating by blocking the virus from making the spike protein that it uses to gain access to host cells, and another protein that is key to viral replication.
OK, so the study – published in Nature Communications – is only in mouse and human cell cultures, but it’s still pretty cool, especially as the technique appears to work both with the original strain of the virus and some of the newer variants.

Covid is once again gaining ground around the world. The latest WHO update reveals that new infections have increased by 10% in the past week compared to the previous week, and deaths have increased by 3% after a nine-week run of reducing death rates.
The situation in Indonesia is particularly dire, as infection rates have increased by 44% in the past week compared to the week before, but the United Kingdom is also showing a 30% increase.

Rumours abound that Victoria will enter into another lockdown this evening, after the new outbreak grows to 16 cases in total.
Two of the new cases attended the Carlton vs Geelong game at the MCG on Saturday 10 July, and a several cases have been reported in an apartment block in Maribrynong.

Here are the latest covid-19 infection numbers from around Australia to 9pm Wednesday:
National – 31,431 with 912 deaths
ACT – 124 (0)
NSW – 6551 (99)
NT – 189 (0)
QLD – 1747 (5)
SA – 823 (2)
TAS – 234 (0)
VIC – 20,727 (2)
WA – 1036 (0)

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