Australia tops a list of 185 countries – largely thanks to skin cancers – but incidence is going up everywhere.
Australia has the highest men’s cancer rates among 185 countries and rates are expected to rise globally 84% by 2050, researchers say.
A study in Cancer co-authored by Charles Sturt University researchers found that Australia has the highest prevalence at 776.7 per 100,000 people, as well as the highest age-standardised incidence rate of 514.3 cancer cases per 100,000.
But Australia’s mortality-to-incidence ratio was one of the lowest in the world, said co-author Dr Kedir Ahmed, research fellow of rural public health with the Charles Sturt Rural Health Research Institute.
Dr Ahmed said men globally had a higher prevalence of occupational and other modifiable cancer risk factors.
The researchers said cancer was the second leading cause of premature death after cardiovascular diseases globally but was projected to be the leading cause of death by the end of this century.
They forecast an increase in cancer cases globally from 10.3 million to 19 million between 2022 and 2050, and a spike in cancer-related deaths from 5.4 million to 10.5 million over the same period.
They also predicted a 117% increase of cancer rates among men aged 65 years and over, and a 160% increase in low and medium Human Development Index countries.
“Of the 30 cancer types in the study, lung cancer will likely remain the leading type of both cases and deaths,” Dr Ahmed said.
Dr Rebecca Venchiarutti, senior research fellow at Chris O’Brien Lifehouse, told The Medical Republic it was not surprising that Australia had the highest cancer incidence among men because non-melanoma skin cancers were included in the figures.
“These are the most common cancers diagnosed in Australia. Most of the time these types of cancers are not life threatening,” said Dr Venchiarutti, a co-author on the paper and convener of the Cancer Epidemiology Special Interest Group of the Australasian Epidemiological Association.
“In fact, they are so common that most do not need to be reported to cancer registries, so in reality this number is an underestimate of the total cancer cases.
“Australia also has a very high-performing health system, with universal healthcare, good access to primary care, and excellent cancer registries. This means that cancers are likely to be picked up and reported with a high degree of accuracy.”
The figures also reflected the fact that men were less likely to engage in cancer prevention behaviours and had a higher burden of modifiable risk factors like smoking and alcohol consumption, she said.
Dr Venchiarutti said Australia’s mortality-to-incidence ratios had been decreasing in over the past four decades, reflecting better detection, earlier diagnosis and better treatments.
But cancer rates were still rising due to Australia’s growing – and ageing –population, she said.
“In Australia we’re also getting better at detecting cancers through our screening programs, such as small or early-stage cancers. Some of these cancers might not have ever caused someone problems if they hadn’t been picked up.”
Dr Venchiarutti said a 2022 Lancet study projected a decline in the cancer incidence rate for men in Australia from 2020 to 2044. The number of new cases was projected to increase by 47.4% and the number of cancer deaths to increase by 36.4%, that study found.
“This has been attributed to population growth and the effect of an ageing population,” she said.
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